«We should exceed last year’s indicators»: the Deputy head of the FCS of Russia Vladimir Ivin on export growth and trade wars

«We should exceed last year’s indicators»: the Deputy head of the FCS of Russia Vladimir Ivin about the growth of exports and trade volokolamka link
15:01

Vladimir Agoev
In 2019 the growth rates of Russian exports slowed somewhat compared to 2018. the Pressure on the supply of goods abroad has had a decline in prices for energy sources, the weakening of demand in foreign markets and the strengthening of trade wars. In the structure of Russian exports is gradually decreasing the share of the EU and increase the share of the Asia-Pacific region — largely due to China. This was stated by the Deputy head of the Federal customs service of Russia Vladimir Ivin in an exclusive interview with RT on the sidelines of the International customs forum.

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— Mr President, in 2018, Russian exports increased by 26% and amounted to $450 billion is There to date, the understanding of how value can be changed in 2019? If we can exceed last year’s figure?

In General, our export figures are now heading down the same path as last year. In this context, it is important to understand statistics: we calculate the physical volume of exported products and the cash value of the delivered goods. At the moment we can say that physically our exports are growing. Compared to the previous year the volume has increased by 2%. In addition, we now expect the launch of the gas pipeline «Power of Siberia», which will further increase our shipments abroad.

However, if we talk about monetary volume of exports, this indicator is now slightly decreased. The fact that traditionally in our exports a high proportion — about 65% are mineral resources and products of their processing. In this regard, the statistics strongly depends on the situation on global commodity markets. Thus, the observed decrease in the value of exports due, for example, with falling gas prices. However, with winter approaching, the prices may again go up.

Thus, at the moment our exports are near the levels of 2018. But with the launch of «Power of Siberia» we have to overcome last year’s figures.

— Which countries are currently the main buyers of Russian goods?

Among the States the first place in our exports, of course, is China. In the Chinese direction, we see now growth in both exports and imports. If to speak about the economic block, in this sense, our main trading partner is the European Union.

Meanwhile, in the structure of our trade, new trends have emerged. Currently, foreign trade is greatly influenced by political processes, so the EU’s share is slightly reduced. Compared to the previous year, it decreased from about 43% to 41%. The share of the Asia-Pacific region, largely in China increased from approximately 2% to 16%.

However, if again to speak about the States, right after China’s largest trading partners remain Germany and the Netherlands. They are important transport hub for the transshipment of our mineral resources for resale to other countries. They were followed by our traditional partners, such as Belarus, Kazakhstan, Italy, for example, the USA, with which we are now also witnessing growth in foreign trade.

— You mentioned that the main share of our exports are mineral resources. Meanwhile, Russia is now actively increasing the supply of non-oil products, and by 2024, the corresponding volume should reach $250 billion is There to date understanding on what number we will reach by the end of 2019?

— Let me remind you that in 2018 Russia non-energy exported non-oil goods worth $149 billion. Now, we are still moving in the same direction, and we count that by the end of 2019 will be able to exceed this figure.

  • Vladimir Ivin about the growth of non-oil exports

— What non-oil products today we supply to other countries?

Particularly petrochemicals, steel products and various steel structures. Next comes the food: cereals, dairy products, honey, nuts, different types of meat (mainly poultry and pork).

We also supply machines and equipment. In this industry are now seeing a slight decline in exports. Most likely, it is caused by a General trend to reduced demand in local markets, but the indicators remain good.

— Whether this decline in demand and a slowdown of exports in some sectors with factors such as trade wars?

— Most likely, it really is. Game rules change in the regulation of international trade causes a definite change of volumes and directions of trade flows. All these processes have, as a consequence, affect our foreign trade statistics. Actions such as the rise of protectionism, as it is very much to say, the conduct of a trade war — all this cannot fail to affect. So our exporters need to adjust to new realities.

  • Vladimir Ivin on the impact of trade wars on Russia’s trade

We are in constant contact with the Russian export centre (REC). Organization is just exploring the external environment changes and initiatives as we, from the point of view of customs administration, could help the exporters to adapt to the new conditions of access to external markets.

— What are the measures taken by the Federal customs service to support exporters and encourage non-oil supply?

— We have a range of measures to improve customs administration as a whole, primarily for export. We the maximum number of procedures transferred to digital. The share of electronic declarations, which are registered automatically, closer to 90%. Half of them automatically available. That is, everything happens according to a pre-defined algorithm in automatic mode.

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As for the physical control when the goods should really look and touch hands, this occurs only in cases of risks. This year we have the lowest percentage of inspections and other forms of control, which would imply the stop of the product and its study. The share of such goods never fell below 1% and now stands at about 0.7%.

With regard to support exporters, we, along with REC regularly under our technology. As one example, a specially published recommendations for customs authorities for clearance of goods that are intended to be implemented through Internet sites in foreign markets.

We are talking about procedure, when goods are exported, but not immediately sold, and wait for a buyer who will order. It is an unconventional approach to conventional trade. For such cases, we modified our technology so that, from the point of view of exchange controls and technological aspects of customs procedures, we do not impede this kind of control.

— Russia today has a very close cooperation with the countries of the Eurasian economic Union. In 2018, our volume of trade with the EEU member States grew by almost 10% and has made $57,8 billion As the figure may increase in 2019? What proportion of the EAEU member States is the turnover of Russian?

— The share of EEU in our volume of trade today is an average 8-8,5%. We are now seeing a slight decline in our exports. This is largely due to the fact that from the end of 2018 has changed the conditions of export of mineral products in the Republic of Belarus, so the volume decreased. And since the export is dominated by mineral products, this had an impact on General trends. All other trade positions, we now record an average growth of 2-4%.

  • Vladimir Ivin on the trade of Russia with the countries of the EAEU

— What kind of products today Russia exports to its partners in the Eurasian economic Union?

— Our exports to the countries of the Eurasian economic Union quite well diversified. If the total volume of Russian export abroad the share of mineral resources accounting for about 65%, in trade with the EEU member States, the figure is not as significant and is slightly less than 50%. In addition to raw materials, we actively supply food, petrochemicals, machinery and equipment.

— What products we mainly import from the EAEU?

— As for imports, the dairy products, largely at the expense of the Republic of Belarus. In General, the range of our procurement is quite broad. This machine-technical products, and agricultural goods, as well as coal, ore, metal products. In addition, we are working together in several productions when we buy from countries raw materials, produce products from it and take it back.

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