The Finance Ministry Of Russia / VK
First Vice Premier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has criticized the head of the accounts chamber Alexey Kudrin on the prospects of the Russian economy, announced during a Moscow financial forum. In particular, Kudrin questioned the Ministry of economic development forecasts for GDP growth, reports TASS.
According to Kudrin, in 2019 we can count on GDP growth at 1% and in 2020 — 1-1,3%. While the Ministry expects growth of 1.3% 2019 1.7% in 2020, and the Ministry of Finance, according to Siluanov, the next year provides a 2% increase.
At the same time, one of the key tasks launched this year’s national project to reach target growth rates higher than 3% by 2024. However, according to Kudrin, the national projects «are rather plans of evolutionary development, but not a breakthrough».
«According to the different institutions, implementation of national projects adds to economic growth of 0.1 to 0.6 p. p. of GDP,» said Kudrin. The head of the chamber recalled some of the conclusions previously announced at the St. Petersburg international economic forum. First, according to him, the fate of national projects, their execution and achievement of goals outside of the national projects. This is due to the fact that the policy, which is linked to the investment climate, stability of tax policy, the quality of judicial and law enforcement, formed the other organs and in other documents. «So without it, and without this investment breakthrough or investment growth will not occur and implementation of those goals, and, most importantly, economic growth,» Kudrin said.
In addition, the rise of economic growth to advance levels are also not incorporated in the national projects. But the lack of GDP growth of 3% is likely unenforceable and the indicators for the national projects.
Also the head of the accounting chamber focused on the fact that not every national purpose, accompanied by the national project. Kudrin called the current policy in the specified scope inadequate.
Also the head of the accounting chamber drew attention to the fact that the state is not going to withdraw from the economy, therefore, is not assumed and increasing the share of the private sector that could stimulate economic growth.
«Here, Alexei Leonidovich [Kudrin] also [says]: «Everything is bad». Why are we talking about? To get some kind of response from the audience? I don’t understand — responded to this Silvanus. You say, the private sector, we do not grow. Not the case even in the private sector or in the private. Case managers — who controls the state and what management controls in a private enterprise.»
Vice Prime Minister also did not agree with the assessment Kudrin role of regions in the economy. «The role of regions, you say, understated. Nothing of the sort. On the contrary, we, in fact, never worked with the regions, as it is now it’s done,» says Siluanov.
It also hurt that Kudrin puts the example of Western countries. «You say we need to increase spending on health and education, give the example of USA and Germany. Why are we not looking at the spending on health and education in Singapore, Korea and those countries that have provided a breakthrough? Due to what they breakthrough provided? Due to the fact that increased spending in social programs or still doing infrastructure projects and the regulatory mechanisms involved?» — said Siluanov.
According to him, the real incomes of the population will continue to grow. In this regard, the official called on to notice good actions that produce results, not to focus on the negative.
Note that in the Kremlin in August also expressed concern with the size of incomes of Russians. However, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, income growth has begun but is progressing slowly.
However, even official statistics shows that the incomes of Russians do not just grow slowly, and steadily declining the last six years, since the annexation of Crimea and the introduction against Russia of sanctions for aggression in Ukraine in 2014. In the first half of 2019, the real incomes of Russians decreased by 1.3%, the experts found out of the chamber.
Kudrin also believes that economic development and prevents the absence of big inflow of investments, and institutional problems. One law on investment protection is not a solution. «Business must be protected by the common law, the common investment institutions, access to credit, protection of property rights through the courts in the present form, without this law. Let’s say that today is not enough, introduced an additional law in this form, which gives additional opportunities. But 95% of our business will not be able to take advantage of this law. How about you use the main enterprises, strong investors. Perhaps it will be an additional help, is good enough. This, I think, does not solve the problem of investment and, in General, of the scale that is needed for a breakthrough in economic growth», — he said.
According to the head of the accounting chamber, guaranteeing the special conditions of large investors is «a good step, but an evolutionary nature.»
Earlier, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at the plenary meeting of the Moscow financial forum said that in the near future the government will finalize the draft law on the protection and promotion of investment, which will provide special conditions for large investors.
As reported in July, the bill has not yet been agreed by all interested departments and it should be linked to the adopted law at the Speke 2.0 (the special mechanism of investment contracts). The draft prepared by the Ministry of Finance, was submitted to government in mid-April, but until now has not been approved by the government and the government Commission on legislative activities. At the same time to bring the bill to the state Duma before 1 July, the government instructed by President Vladimir Putin. As previously stated the first Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, the law should enter into force from 2020.